Today’s risk read
Middle East leads at 83% and climbing; Sub-Saharan Africa is today's biggest move (-11 pts/24h). No region in high risk — broad market sensitivity across oil, defense, fx.
17 institutional / 30 regional / 7 social · Model 2026.1-adaptive
Sub-Saharan Africa
cooled · Sub-Saharan Africa is at 48% risk (buildup). That’s 23 points higher than the last update.…
East Asia
moved higher · East Asia is at 41% risk (buildup). Top story theme: general. Lead: Japan's military dispos…
North America
moved higher · North America is at 65% risk (buildup). Top story theme: conflict. Lead: Trump’s Top Advise…
South Asia
cooled · South Asia is at 29% risk (calm). Top story theme: energy. Lead: As America's tariff on Can…
Middle East
moved higher · Middle East is at 83% risk (active event). Top story theme: conflict. Lead: Trump says oil…
Social Signals (Reddit /r/geopolitics)
Social OSINT (X)
Al Jazeera
Premium Times Nigeria