Today’s risk read
Middle East leads at 77% and easing; North America is today's biggest move (+45 pts/24h). No region in high risk — broad market sensitivity across oil, defense, fx.
17 institutional / 30 regional / 7 social · Model 2026.1-adaptive
North America
moved higher · North America is at 63% risk (buildup). Top story theme: general. Lead: The Trump Administr…
Sub-Saharan Africa
cooled · Sub-Saharan Africa is at 46% risk (buildup). Top story theme: coup instability. Lead: El Ni…
East Asia
moved higher · East Asia is at 35% risk (calm). Top story theme: general. Lead: Glacial flood death toll s…
Europe
moved higher · Europe is at 61% risk (buildup). Top story theme: political. Lead: Marine Le Pen's National…
Russia/Ukraine
moved higher · Russia/Ukraine is at 63% risk (buildup). Top story theme: conflict. Lead: India’s PM Modi u…
France 24
Social OSINT (X)
Social OSINT (X)
AP
Social OSINT (X)
Social Signals (YouTube)
Social OSINT (X)