Today’s risk read
Middle East leads at 76% and climbing; Latin America is today's biggest move (+23 pts/24h). No region in high risk — broad market sensitivity across oil, defense, fx.
17 institutional / 30 regional / 7 social · Model 2026.1-adaptive
Latin America
moved higher · Latin America is at 60% risk (buildup). Top story theme: general. Lead: Haiti police confro…
Europe
moved higher · Europe is at 60% risk (buildup). Top story theme: conflict. Lead: US military faces ‘beyond…
Sub-Saharan Africa
cooled · Sub-Saharan Africa is at 49% risk (buildup). Top story theme: general. Lead: Sudanese armed…
Russia/Ukraine
cooled · Russia/Ukraine is at 43% risk (buildup). That’s 7 points lower than the last update. Top st…
North America
moved higher · North America is at 65% risk (buildup). Top story theme: general. Lead: US President Trump…
BBC World
Africa/Sahel Crisis Monitor
Africa/Sahel Crisis Monitor
Reuters
Social OSINT (X)
Social OSINT (X)