Today’s risk read
Middle East leads at 75% and climbing; Sub-Saharan Africa is today's biggest move (+20 pts/24h). No region in high risk — broad market sensitivity across oil, defense, fx.
17 institutional / 30 regional / 7 social · Model 2026.1-adaptive
Sub-Saharan Africa
moved higher · Sub-Saharan Africa is at 59% risk (buildup). That’s 15 points higher than the last update.…
Latin America
cooled · Latin America is at 47% risk (buildup). Top story theme: political. Lead: Alleged Irish cri…
Russia/Ukraine
cooled · Russia/Ukraine is at 37% risk (buildup). Top story theme: general. Lead: North Korea may de…
North America
cooled · North America is at 35% risk (calm). It was buildup before. Top story theme: general. Lead:…
Europe
moved higher · Europe is at 39% risk (buildup). Top story theme: general. Lead: Germany warns of ‘daily hy…
Japan Times
Deutsche Welle
Social OSINT (X)
Social OSINT (X)
Japan Times
Premium Times Nigeria