Today’s risk read
Middle East leads at 80% and holding; Europe is today's biggest move (-30 pts/24h). No region in high risk — broad market sensitivity across oil, defense, fx.
17 institutional / 30 regional / 7 social · Model 2026.1-adaptive
Europe
cooled · Europe is at 27% risk (calm). Top story theme: choke point disruption. Lead: UK seizes Russ…
Sub-Saharan Africa
moved higher · Sub-Saharan Africa is at 60% risk (buildup). Top story theme: political. Lead: Rabe Abubaka…
East Asia
moved higher · East Asia is at 29% risk (buildup). Top story theme: general. Lead: Myanmar's former junta…
South Asia
moved higher · South Asia is at 33% risk (calm). Top story theme: general. Lead: US Air Force B-52 Stratof…
Latin America
moved higher · Latin America is at 47% risk (buildup). Top story theme: cartel violence. Lead: Cuba quanti…
Social OSINT (X)
Social OSINT (X)
Social Signals (Reddit /r/geopolitics)
Al Jazeera
Africa/Sahel Crisis Monitor